Blue Origin’s initial attempt to launch their 320-foot New Glenn for the first time did not go as planned this morning, as technical issues repeatedly forced pushbacks in the planned T-0 time, and finally resulted in a scrub for the morning as engineers were forced to call a scrub towards the end of the launch window.

Blue Origin has not announced the next New Glenn launch attempt, which remains upright at the Launch Complex 36 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. The rocket and its payload is safe and a new attempt may come as soon as overnight tonight, or in two days after SpaceX launches Falcon 9 with the Blue Ghost Lunar Lander Mission 1 & Hakuto-R M2 “Resilience” mission from LC-39A early Wednesday morning.

Blue Origin has not officially announced the reasons behind the scrub, but seemingly informed rumors of an APU (Auxillary Power Unit) operating outside of its specifications were echoing up and down the beaches as spectators waited for the launch.

Weather Is A Concern For Tuesday Morning

One aspect of Blue Origin’s decision whether or not to try launching New Glenn may come down to weather: the 45th Weather Squadron of Space Launch Delta 45 has posted a new forecast this morning that is somewhat pessimistic:

Overcast skies, rain showers and higher than acceptable winds are forecast for the Space Coast overnight, causing the 45th to predict only a 30% chance of the range being within acceptable weather conditions.

Given the fact that New Glenn has not yet flown, that it takes a long time to fuel (around five hours) to fuel and that the weather may not be very cooperative this evening, it would be no surprise if Blue Origin demurs from an attempt this evening, choosing to wait another two days until the weather turns in their favor. That would also afford Blue Origin’s engineers to further assess the data from last night’s launch attempt in order to find a path forward to launch.

This Is Not Unusual, Nor Is It Any Surprise

Before a rocket actually flies, there are tens of thousands of limits and parameters that the designers of the vehicle decide on, with all of those decisions related to best industry practices, theoretical limits, and experimental observations. While testing or simulations can provide some insight and process improvements, one thing they cannot provide is real-world data based on actual performance observed as the new rocket attempts to go to space.

That said, decision makers and engineers tend towards erring on the side of caution before flying. It makes good common sense to do so, and conservative decision making in these matters has shown to lead to the best outcomes, especially in an all-up testing scenario like New Glenn’s first flight.

“It is better to be on the ground wishing you were flying than it is to be in the air wishing you were on the ground fixing a problem.”

Old Aviation Maxim

Tomorrow is another day, and it is a chance to eliminate any problems you know about.

That said, despite the frustrations of space aficionados and launch spectators, playing it safe with a flying can of high-explosives is always the right choice. Fly when you are ready and never before, and that’s just what Blue Origin did this morning.

Stay tuned.