Last night in California, SpaceX launched another group of Starlink satellites from California and experienced a failure of the second stage when the mission got to the point of a second burn intended to circularize the orbit of the spacecraft.

Company founder Elon Musk stated on the X platform that, “Upper stage restart to raise perigee resulted in an engine RUD for reasons currently unknown. Team is reviewing data tonight to understand root cause.

Starlink satellites were deployed, but the perigee may be too low for them to raise orbit. Will know more in a few hours.”

Musk added that “We’re updating satellite software to run the ion thrusters at their equivalent of warp 9. Unlike a Star Trek episode, this will probably not work, but it’s worth a shot. The satellite thrusters need to raise orbit faster than atmospheric drag pulls them down or they burn up.”

As Musk states, Warp 9 is from Star Trek, and in the show, that meant that the ship was traveling as fast as its engines allowed. That was only used in emergency situations, and that’s effectively what the Starlink satellites are in: a race to raise their orbit above atmospheric drag before they lose too much velocity and drop out of orbit. Since then, no update has been provided by SpaceX or Musk.

Last night’s failure ended a streak of 284 consecutive 100% mission successes for the company. It should be noted, however, that the first stage booster performed nominally, that it landed on the drone ship ‘Of Course I Still Love You’ offshore safely as intended and that prior to its failure that the second stage did achieve orbit, albeit one that may not be useful for the payload.

SpaceX Statement (July 12, 2024)

SpaceX made the following statement on its website this afternoon:

“On July 11, 2024, SpaceX launched Falcon 9 with 20 Starlink satellites from Space Launch Complex 4E at Vandenberg Space Force Base. Falcon 9’s first stage performed nominally, carrying the second stage and Starlink satellites to orbit, separating from the second stage as expected, and returning to Earth for a successful droneship landing, representing SpaceX’s 329th recovery of an orbital class rocket to-date.

Falcon 9’s second stage performed its first burn nominally. However, a liquid oxygen leak developed on the second stage. After a planned relight of the upper stage engine to raise perigee – or the lowest point of orbit – the Merlin Vacuum engine experienced an anomaly and was unable to complete its second burn. Although the stage survived and still deployed the satellites, it did not successfully circularize its orbit. This left the satellites in an eccentric orbit with a very low perigee of 135 km, which is less than half the expected perigee altitude.

The team worked overnight to make contact with the satellites in order to send early burn commands, but the satellites were left in an enormously high-drag environment only 135 km above the Earth (each pass through perigee removed 5+ km of altitude from the orbit’s apogee, or the highest point in the satellite orbit). At this level of drag, our maximum available thrust is unlikely to be enough to successfully raise the satellites. As such, the satellites will re-enter Earth’s atmosphere and fully demise. They do not pose a threat to other satellites in orbit or to public safety.

We greatly appreciate the team’s effort to learn as much as possible from the satellites and attempt recovery.

This event is a reminder of how technically challenging spaceflight is. To date, we have completed 364 successful Falcon launches – safely carrying astronauts, customer payloads and thousands of Starlink satellites to orbit – making the Falcon family of rockets one of the most reliable in the world. SpaceX will perform a full investigation in coordination with the FAA, determine root cause, and make corrective actions to ensure the success of future missions. With a robust satellite and rocket production capability, and a high launch cadence, we’re positioned to rapidly recover and continue our pace as the world’s most active launch services provider.”

Launch Replay

Here is a replay of SpaceX’s livestream of the Starlink 9-3 launch from last night:

Investigation Ahead

Of course, SpaceX will investigate the failure and try to identify its root cause(s) so it can take corrective action to prevent reoccurrence. In a Root Cause Analysis, or RCA investigation, data from the flight will be examined, as well as the manufacturing and test records associated with that particular second stage. From that flight data, the company will ascertain what failed and when, and from that they can begin to narrow down how it happened. Those investigations are thorough and take some time to complete. How long that takes is anyone’s guess.

SpaceX’s last in-flight failure occurred in 2015, when another second-stage failure ended some 139 seconds into flight. The resulting investigation led to a 180-day gap in Falcon 9 flights. It should be noted, however, that at the time SpaceX had far less experience launching Falcon 9 — the failed CRS-7 mission was the company’s 19th Falcon 9 flight and the next flight, Orbcomm 2-2 was its 20th. Thursday’s launch was SpaceX’s 69th Falcon 9 flight this year and the 354th since the rocket’s debut in 2010. That is quite a lot of in-flight experience, and that experience may well aid the company in identifying what went wrong and how to remediate the issue quickly.

FAA Statement

NASA Spaceflight, a leading space news organization, queried the FAA about the failure, and the FAA responded by saying, “The FAA is assessing the operation and will issue an updated statement if it is determined an investigation is warranted.”

Later, that statement was updated:

“The FAA is aware an anomaly occurred during the SpaceX Starlink Group 9-3 mission that launched from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California on July 11. The incident involved the failure of the upper stage rocket while it was in space. No public injuries or public property damage have been reported. The FAA is requiring an investigation.

An investigation is designed to further enhance public safety, determine the root cause of the event, and identify corrective actions to avoid it from happening again.

The FAA will be involved in every step of the investigation process and must approve SpaceX’s final report, including any corrective actions

A return to flight is based on the FAA determining that any system, process or procedure related to the mishap does not affect public safety. In addition, SpaceX may need to request and receive approval from the FAA to modify its license that incorporates any corrective actions and meet other licensing requirements.

The FAA responding to NASA Spaceflight, July 12, 2024

At this time, NASA, the US Space Force and NRO — three of SpaceX’s biggest governmental customers — have not made any public statement requiring their requirement of or participation in an investigation. Ostensibly, SpaceX will conduct the investigation working with the FAA and report the findings to those entities for their approval.

Launch Schedule Effects

With Falcon 9 now grounded by the FAA while an investigation is completed, missions such as Polaris Dawn, Crew 9, NG-21 and others are indefinitely delayed, as are any Starlink or customer launches currently on SpaceX’s manifest.

That said, the Starlink 10-4 mission scheduled for early Sunday morning from Space Launch Complex 40 is almost certainly delayed, pending a company announcement. Other missions later on the calendar are affected as well: GSAT-20, WorldView Legion 3 and 4, Arctic Satellite Broadband Mission (ASBM), Transporter 11 and others were manifested for the next 45 days from either Cape Canaveral, Kennedy Space Center or Vandenberg Space Force Base.

Regarding the upcoming private crewed Polaris Dawn mission that will be commanded by Jared Isaacman, Isaacman released this statement on X.com today:

“SpaceX has an incredible track record with Falcon9. I can say from personal experience they are very transparent when issues arise. I have no doubt they will arrive at a cause quickly and ensure the most cost-effective and reliable launch vehicle keeps delivering payload to orbit. As for Polaris Dawn, we will fly whenever SpaceX is ready and with complete confidence in the rocket, spaceship and operations.”

— Jared Isaacman, July 11, 2024

Polaris Dawn had been scheduled to fly NET July 31, but that mission is now delayed pending the mishap investigation and the implementation of remediations.