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A Moderate Risk of Life-Threatening Rip Currents Will Continue at All Area Beaches this Holiday Weekend

As of 3 PM, some showers have developed along the east coast sea breeze along I-95 south of Melbourne with a couple of storms also across the Treasure Coast. Farther inland, a few showers along the west coast sea breeze are approaching the Kissimmee River from the west. A couple of showers have also tried to make it into Lake county but could not overcome the dry air aloft.

Through Tonight…

Both sea breezes and associated convection will continue to trek inland with coverage of showers and storms increasing in coverage as more boundary collisions occur. The bulk of the activity is expected to be confined to south of a Kissimmee to Rockledge line between the Kissimmee River and I-95 into early this evening here this more favorable moisture, but light westerly steering flow could bring some storms back toward the southern Brevard and Treasure Coasts as well. Farther north, expect convection to continue to struggle against the dry air and warm temps aloft, so development should be limited and brief. Will carry 30% into southern Lake and Orange county and 20% as far north as Leesburg and Deland, but this is probably on the generous side.

With the loss of daytime heating, showers and storms will wane past sunset with most have dissipated by 10-11pm. Dry conditions will prevail overnight with min temps in the low-mid 70s.


Mon-Tue

Weak pressure gradient will persist across the area into early this week, with subtropical ridge axis
remaining south of the area. This will continue a light offshore flow in the lower levels across central Florida, that will remain weak enough to allow the east coast sea breeze to develop and push inland each afternoon. PW values remain around 1.7-1.9″, which should be sufficient for scattered afternoon shower and storm coverage each day, with greatest chance for rain over the interior where sea breeze collisions are expected to occur through late day. PoPs will be near seasonal norms, around 40-50 percent both Monday and Tuesday. A weak westerly steering flow may transport
some storms back toward the east coast and offshore through early evening, especially on Labor Day. A few stronger storms and localized heavy rainfall due to slower storm motion will continue to be possible each day. Highs will generally be in the low 90s across much of the area and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

Small, but very long period swells (up to 16-17 sec) from distant Major Hurricane Larry will reach the east coast of FL by Monday night into Tuesday. This will start a high risk of dangerous/life-threatening rip currents at area beaches that will continue for several days.

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Wed-Sat

Mid level low lifting northward over the central Gulf will eventually become absorbed by trough extending southward across the eastern U.S. into late week. This trough will push a weak cold front through the southeast states and toward FL into Friday. The low aloft mentioned previously, may interact with a trough at the surface leading to some slow tropical development over the Gulf with this system into mid-late week.
However, much uncertainty remains, and NHC currently continues a low chance (around 30 percent) for any tropical formation with this system into next week. Across central FL, moisture will increase with offshore flow strengthening as front moves closer to the area. This will lead to a slight increase in rain chances through the period with scattered to at times numerous afternoon showers and storms expected. Temps remain near to slightly above seasonal norms, with highs in the low 90s and lows in the low-mid 70s.

Beach conditions will continue to become increasingly hazardous from mid to late week as long period swells from distant Major Hurricane Larry continue to increase. These swells will continue a high risk of strong/life-threatening rip currents along beaches of east FL through the period, and may also produce a brief period of high surf and potential for minor coastal flooding around times of high tide into late week.

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